Abstract:
Based on household-level survey data collected from the national institute of statistics,
vulnerability as an expected poverty approach (Chaudhuri et al. 2002) is used to analyse the
vulnerability of households as the probability that the income of rural households falls below the
poverty threshold line (minimum income) due to climate stress and socioeconomic
characteristics with logistic regression model. The results reveal that a 1% increase in number of
children less than 5 years, a 1% increase of household size and a 1% increase in food prices
results respectively in an increase of 3.44%, 3.62% and 6.9% of vulnerability of households. A
1% increase of drought occurrence results in an increase of 4.59% of vulnerability of households.
A 1% increase of access to irrigation, a 1% increase of number of cultivated fields and a 1%
increase of access to cereal bank results respectively in a decrease of 3.6%, 0.48% and 4.84% of
vulnerability of households.
This study is also based on vulnerability resilience indicator across regional levels following
Temesgen Deressa, Rashid M. Hassan and Claudia Ringler (2008).The resilience is computed as
the net effect of exposure and sensitivity on adaptive capacity and the higher net value the lesser
vulnerability. The result shows that rural households living in the regions of Dosso and Tahoua
are relatively less vulnerable because of their high adaptive capacity than those of the five other
regions of which those of Zinder and Niamey are the most vulnerable due to their high sensitivity
and exposure to climate stress. |
