Abstract:
The spatial distribution of PM2.5 population exposure is a key factor to the estimation of the
health impacts of PM2.5. By combining the PM2.5 data retrieved from MODIS satellite and the
population spatial distribution data in the Yangtze River Delta which were estimated by the
random forest model with the night light, vegetation index, elevation and slope of satellite
remote sensing, the population exposure intensity of PM2.5 and the risk of lung cancer death in
2013 were calculated. The results show that the spatial distribution of PM2.5 population exposure
intensity is spatially discontinuous, which is consistent with the spatial distribution of population
but inconsistent with the spatial distribution of PM2.5 concentration. Generally, the regions of
high exposure intensity include Shanghai, most of Jiangsu Province, the central and southern half
of Anhui Province and some coastal cities in Zhejiang Province. The lung cancer deaths caused
by PM2.5 pollution are consistent with the spatial distribution of PM2.5 exposure intensity. Among
the four major cities, relative to the baseline situation, the largest increment in lung cancer deaths
caused by PM2.5 in 2013 is in Shanghai (1565), and the smallest is in Hefei (570). In 2013, the
total number of lung cancer deaths caused by PM2.5 exposure in the Yangtze River Delta is
14000. Our findings indicates that moderate-resolution information from multi-satellite retrievals
can help to understand the spatiotemporal variability of population exposure and the related
health risk in a high-density environment. |
